Fitch Solutions Forecasts Central Bank Policy Rate Cut to 6% by End of 2026
According to latest projections, Azerbaijan’s refinancing rate is expected to decrease progressively over the coming years, reaching 6% by the end of 2026 and stabilizing around 5.44% by 2028, which will directly impact domestic borrowing costs and yield curves (apa.az).
Central Bank Set to Announce Policy Rate Decision This Week
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan will release its upcoming interest rate decision this week, providing crucial guidance for commercial banks and liquidity management (apa.az).
Lending & deposits
Azerbaijan’s Banking Sector Posts Over 1 Billion Manat in Net Profit for 9 Months
Local banks demonstrated robust profitability, accumulating 1.08 billion manats in net profit from January to September 2026, alongside a 13% expansion in total assets to reach 63.6 billion manats by October 1 (apa.az, apa.az).
ABB Launches New Tranche of Manat Bond Issuance
The International Bank of Azerbaijan has kicked off a new phase of its bond program, offering 8th and 9th tranches totaling 15 million manats with a nominal value of 100 manats each to deepen capital market activity (apa.az).
Payments & fintech
Payment Card Circulation Reaches 23.4 Million Units
By the end of September 2026, the number of payment cards in active circulation across banks and Azerpost grew by 414,000 to total 23.38 million units, supported by a massive domestic cashless payment volume of nearly 9 billion manats for the month (axar.az, apa.az).
Market signals
Total banking sector assets expanded by over 13% annually to touch 63.6 billion manats, reflecting strong balance sheet growth (apa.az).
Non-oil and gas sectors accounted for roughly 70% of Azerbaijan's economic output during the first nine months of the year, signaling healthy economic diversification (apa.az).
Global commodity markets showed Brent crude trading around $114.66 per barrel, while local gold and silver prices saw adjustments alongside strong international equity indexes (apa.az, apa.az, apa.az).
Risks to watch
Potential shifts in monetary easing pace if inflation or regional economic pressures alter central bank rate trajectories (apa.az).
Heightened cyber security threats in digital channels, with recent national warnings highlighting rising social engineering and fraudulent account takeovers (axar.az).
Actionable insights
Review investment portfolios and asset-liability management strategies ahead of the Central Bank's upcoming interest rate announcement this week (apa.az).
Evaluate participation terms in current corporate debt instruments, such as the newly launched ABB bond tranche, to optimize liquidity yields (apa.az).
Audit internal mobile and digital banking security controls to mitigate rising credential theft and unauthorized account access risks (axar.az).
Assess capital adequacy and credit growth targets in light of the sector's 13% asset expansion to ensure balanced risk-taking (apa.az).
